How to Read the Model
1. Status mapScan quadrants for undervalued vs cooling offenses.
2. OSI + PALSPair composite strength with schedule-adjusted confirmation.
3. ArchetypeRead ABQ/RCV shape as a profile label.
4. PP-Gap + projOSIProcess vs production for market lean.
5. ContextConfirm trend, platoon, pitcher hand, sample size.
Numerical Interpretation
OSI tiers
| Tier | Range | Read |
|---|
| Elite | 85+ | Complete offensive weapon |
| High Level | 75—84 | Reliable top-tier unit |
| Dangerous | 65—74 | Can run hot in stretches |
| Inconsistent | 50—64 | Matchup-dependent |
| Weak | <50 | Limited run paths |
Pitching Score tiers
| Tier | Range |
|---|
| Ace | 85+ |
| Solid | 70—84 |
| Average | 55—69 |
| Volatile | <55 |
Sample size: prefer YTD for stability; L7 is momentum-only (small sample warning).
All Formulas
ABQ = 30% Discipline + 35% Contact + 20% Pitch Pressure + 15% K Avoidance
RCV = 35% wRC+ + 32% Barrel/park + 20% ISO/park + 13% HardHit/park
OBR = 65% xwOBA + 35% BB%
OSI = 43% RCV + 37% ABQ + 20% OBR
projOSI = OSI + clip((xwOBA - wOBA) — 450, -8, +8)
OOR = 55% HvR + 45% HvL — PALS = (BA+ + PTF+) / 2
Metrics are pool-normalized to 0—100 within the active leaderboard sample. Park factors adjust barrel/ISO/hard-hit for home environment.
Nine Signal Definitions
Signal 1 — K% vs OBR
Soft K% arm vs elite on-base floor.
Threshold: K% low, OBR high — Angle: Over offense
Signal 2 — BB% vs ABQ
Walk rate vs lineup patience.
Angle: Traffic or pitcher edge
Signal 3 — HR/9 vs RCV
Flyball risk vs damage lineup.
Angle: Over total / HR props
Signal 4 — OSI vs Pitching Score
Offense vs opposing staff quality.
Signal 5 — PALS + projOSI
Process vs results alignment.
Signal 6 — OBR + BB%
Table-setting environment.
Signal 7 — ABQ platoon
Handedness split edge.
Signal 8 — RCV archetype
Offensive shape classification.
Signal 9 — Schedule OOR
Opponent context vs baseline.
Convergence: Fired signals sum weighted votes (PP-Gap counts double). Play flag at 4+ weighted convergence.
Archetype System (9 profiles)
Elite Engine
High RCV + High OBR — complete profile. ML/over lean.
Power Leverage
High/Mid — slug-first. Over F5 if SP vulnerable.
Boom-or-Bust
High/Low — volatile overs, risky unders.
Table Setter Plus
Mid/High — grind, RL +0.5.
Balanced
Mid/Mid — neutral, use signals.
Contact Floor
Mid/Low — limited paths.
OBP First
Low/High — walks, unders on K arms.
Glove Line
Low/Mid — weak damage.
Cold Profile
Low/Low — under lean.
Searchable Glossary (A—Z)
- ABQ — At-bat quality composite
- Blown Save% — Failed save opportunities
- BB% — Walk rate (inverted on pitcher tables)
- Elite Stuff — Pitcher Intelligence flag
- ERA — Earned run average (inverted)
- F5 Win% — Lead after five innings rate
- FIP — Fielding independent pitching
- Form Windows — L30 / L14 / L7 cuts
- Hi-Leverage ERA — Bullpen high-leverage ERA
- HR/9 — Homers per nine (inverted)
- K% — Strikeout rate
- ? L7?YTD — Short-window form delta
- Velocity — Trend slope on heat map
- Win% — Team win percentage
- QS% — Quality start rate (6+ IP, ?3 ER)
- QS% Allowed — Opponent quality starts (inverted)
- SP Win% — Wins credited to starters
- RP Win% — Wins credited to relievers
- Save% — Save conversion rate
- Regression Risk — FIP vs ERA flag
- Sustainability — Team Profile form verdict
- Vulnerable — Pretty ERA / weak underlying flag
- Archetype — RCV/OBR tier label (9 types)
- Barrel% — Barreled ball rate
- Chase% — O-swing rate
- Convergence — Weighted fired-signal count
- Power-Floor Gap — RCV minus OBR
- OBR — On-base rating
- OOR — Pitcher / bullpen opponent rating
- OSI — Offensive strength index
- PALS — Pitching-adjusted lineup score
- Park factor — Home run environment adjustment
- Pitching Score — Staff K/BB/HR blend
- PP-Gap — ABQ minus RCV
- projOSI — Regression-adjusted OSI
- RCV — Run creation value
- Regression signal — xwOBA vs wOBA direction
- SwStr% — Whiff rate
- Trend — Rising / Stable / Cooling label
- wRC+ — Weighted runs created plus
- wOBA — Weighted on-base average
- xwOBA — Expected weighted on-base
- ZCon% — Zone contact rate
